The lack of ATSC 3.0 / NextGen TV news at this year’s NAB was surprising. Given the critical decision currently before the FCC, you’d expect broadcasters to be pulling out all the stops to prove they’re ready to ditch the old over the air TV standard for a new one.
In my latest video, I take a look at some of the most interesting news of the show and update my current predictions about where the FCC lands on this mess.
One of the more significant developments from the floor was an announcement by a company called Castanet regarding 5G broadcasting. Their technology allows a 5G signal to be embedded within an ATSC 3.0 signal, essentially tunneling mobile-compatible data through traditional broadcast frequencies. While very few mobile phones currently support this, the proximity of certain TV frequencies to cellular bands suggests a future where a smartphone could function as a portable receiver for broadcast data.
This is gaining traction with the Low Power TV Broadcasters Association, whose members are exploring 5G as a potentially more viable and cost-effective alternative to the complex ATSC 3.0 transition. In Boston, a low-power station has already begun experimental 5G broadcasts, demonstrating that the barriers to entry for this technology may be lower than previously thought.
In contrast, the progress on consumer hardware for ATSC 3.0 remains slow. Pearl TV, a consortium of major broadcasters, showcased prototypes of low-cost converter boxes intended to retail for under $60. These devices are designed to decrypt the new signals for older televisions, yet they remain limited in functionality compared to current $30 ATSC 1.0 tuners that offer recording capabilities. The requirement for digital rights management (DRM) and encryption is a primary driver of these costs and technical limitations. By pushing specific hardware solutions, broadcasters appear to be boxing out the independent hardware market that has sustained the industry for decades.
The absence of clear guidance from the FCC during the show was also apparent. Despite the presence of high-level officials, including Media Bureau Chief Evan Morris and Commissioners Olivia Trusty and Anna Gomez, there was little specific information offered regarding the transition. Remarks remained general, focusing on balancing regulation with free-market competition or discussing broad First Amendment issues. This suggests a cautious approach as the commission weighs the public interest against the interests of large broadcasters.
Looking ahead to the upcoming FCC rulings, I anticipate several developments. The commission will likely end the mandate requiring stations to simulcast their signals in both the old 1.0 and new 3.0 standards. While this sounds significant, the low adoption rate of NextGen TV means most broadcasters will continue to support the older standard to avoid losing their entire over-the-air audience and cable carriage.
Furthermore, I expect the FCC to become more permissive regarding new and existing technologies. This could include allowing broadcasters to use more efficient encoding, such as MPEG-4 or HEVC, on current ATSC 1.0 channels. I think that might allow 5G broadcasts too to see what standard, or combination of standards, works best for the public interest.
Regarding encryption, the FCC may choose to remain silent, essentially letting the market determine the fate of DRM. If encrypted broadcasts continue to hinder consumer adoption and keep tuner prices high, the technology may struggle to survive on its own merits. This lack of adoption poses a long-term risk to the industry. Already, petitions are being filed to reallocate broadcast spectrum for 6G wireless internet. If television viewership continues to decline and the new standard fails to take root, the pressure to claw back these frequencies for other uses will only intensify.
The industry finds itself at a crossroads between the mandates broadcasters now seek and the free-market experiment they originally proposed back in 2016. As the FCC moves toward a more permissive environment for experimental technologies like 5G and better 1.0 encoding, the path forward for traditional broadcasting remains uncertain. The future of the airwaves may ultimately be shaped not by the major networks, but by the smaller, low-power stations currently testing the limits of what a broadcast signal can be.